MDRC

Kuribayashi and Suga

Tourism and Input Output Analysis Cases of Japan and Tunisia

Sumio Kuribayashi
Mikio Suga
Tokyo International University

1. Tourism and Industry Classification

If there is a “Tourism industry” in the industry classification (ISIC, NAICS, etc.), one may face no problem to know how much tourism contributes to the national economy. However, tourism is not generally treated as a separate industry, and no “Tourism industry” in the industry classification. The reason is that the industry classification classify establishments by the primary activity, and almost all activity have possibilities to be related to tourism. Industries related to tourism are, hotel, transportation, restaurant, amusement, museum, massage, car rental, souvenir shop etc. Customers of these industries are not only tourists. For example, banquet revenue of Hotel is not related to tourism. To measure the size of tourism economy, it is necessary to identify the portion of tourism related shipments and sales in each industry. It is meaningless to ask producers, sellers and service suppliers how much of their shipments and sales are related to tourism, since they do not know exactly whether each of their customers is a tourist or not. It is more meaningful to ask tourists how much they spend during their travel.

2. Survey of Tourism Expenditure

In Japan, Japan Tourism Agency (JTA) conducts Quarterly Travel and Tourism Consumption Survey. In the survey, 15,000 individuals (age 20-79) are randomly sampled from Basic Resident Register. It is conducted 4 times in the year; January, April, July, October. Items surveyed at Quarterly Travel and Tourism Consumption Survey are individual attributes (Age, Sex, etc.), traveled or not, number of travel times, period of travel performed, type of travel (overnight, one day, business etc.), consumption during travel.
When the list of individual is not available, questionnaire survey at the airport is effective. Of course, the sample is not selected randomly. Dr.Helmi, a Tunisian person who got Ph.D at Graduate School of Tokyo International University, conducted two questionnaire surveys at the Monastir Airport in Tunisia. He collected samples of 515 tourists in April 2004, 553 tourists in August 2004.

3. Number of Tourists

To know the whole tourism demand, number of tourists is necessary. Number of international tourists is collected through immigration records. Number of domestic tourists are estimated from the Quarterly Travel and Tourism Consumption Survey by applying sampling theory. From the Quarterly Travel and Tourism Consumption Survey (JAPAN) of FY 2007, number of travel times annually is 2.96 for overnight tourists, 2.99 for one day tourist. Number of outbound tourists are 17 million. Travel expenditure at one time is 549 USD for overnight tourists, 181 USD for one day tourists, 423 USD for outbound tourists. Average stay at overnight travel is 2.11 days. Dr.Helmi collected the consumption data of inbound tourists by nationality. He found that the consumption level and pattern of tourists are different by nationality(Table 1, Figure 1).

4. Tourism Demand

Tourism demand is calculated by multiplying tourist’s consumption to number of tourists. From the result of the Quarterly Travel and Tourism Consumption Survey(JAPAN, 2007), total demand by overnight tourists is 153 billion USD, by one day tourists is 49 billion USD, by outbound tourists is 18 billion USD (domestic payments only), and by inbound tourists is 15 billion USD. Total of the tourism demand id 235 billion USD. From the results of Dr.Helmi’s survey((TUNISIA, 2004), tourism demand by inbound tourists is 2,345 million TD (2 billion USD). In his calculation, price is deflated by CPI to the year 2001.

5. Input Output Table

Tourism value added, employment induced by tourism demand can be calculated by using input output table (59 sectors). Inducement by tourism demand is calculated by the following equation
[I-(I-M)A]-1[(I-M)F]
I : unit matrix, M : import coefficient matrix, A : input coefficient matrix, F : tourism demand vector

6. Inducements effect

From the result of the Quarterly Travel and Tourism Consumption Survey(JAPAN, 2007), tourism demand is 235 billion USD (5.6% of GDP), inducement of domestic output is 531 billion USD (5.5% of total domestic output), inducement of value added is 285 billion USD (6.9% of GDP)  and inducement of employment is 441 million (5.4%).
 From the results of Dr.Helmi’s survey((TUNISIA, 2004), tourism demand (inbound only) is 2,345 million TD, inducement of domestic output is 3,131 million TD, inducement of value added is 1,520 million TD (5.3% of GDP) and Inducement of employment is 127 thousand (4.6%).

7. Policy Implications

There will be three ways to increase tourism revenue potentially; A to B, C to B and D to B (Figure 2). Which type of tourists should be targeted ? It seems to be easier to promote tourists group A to shift their consumption to the goods and services which induces more employments, since they need not to spend more. To promote tourists group B to increase consumption seems more difficult, but if the income of their country is growing, it may be possible. It seems difficult to promote tourists group C, since it may be difficult to increase the consumption level and change consumption pattern at the same time. Dr.Helmi found that Spanish and Swiss tourists formed in group A, Irish and Russian formed in group B and group D is empty. Therefore, Spanish and Swiss may be the suitable target to promote them to shift to consume more employment inducing goods and services.

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